VS Perdigon Jr
We have been told over
and over again, in the media and academe for example, that the world is
overpopulated. To
overpopulate, according to www.yourdictionary.com,
is “to populate (an area) too
heavily for the available sustaining resources.”
Hence, if the world is
overpopulated, then the available resources can no longer sustain all living
persons. It cannot have enough land to grow plants from which people get food
and clothing; to provide space for shelter, other facilities (like schools, factories,
offices, hospitals), forest cover, water
reservoir, recreation areas, etc. Let us do some math to verify the claim of
overpopulation.
Land Area. - Currently, world population stands at 7,021,836,029 according to the
CIA Word Factbook1. If we gather and make them stand one
meter apart in one place, we would need 7,021,836,029 square meters or 7,021.84 square kilometers (since 1
million square meters is 1 square kilometer). The land area of Albay is 2,552.6
square kilometers; Camarines Sur, 5,226.8. Combined, their land area is 7,819.4 square kilometers. So all the
people of the world can fit in the two provinces if they stand one meter apart
and there will be an excess of 797.56
square kilometers! Albay and Camarines Sur are just a tiny fraction of the
Philippines and a teeny-weeny fragment of the entire world land area.
Let us apply the same
analysis to Philippine population. The NSCB sets it at 90,000,000. The CIA
World Factbook has a higher figure: 103,000,000.
If we gather and make them stand one meter apart in one place, we would need
103,000,000 square meters or 103 square
kilometers. The land area of Legazpi City is 153.7 square kilometers.2 So all the people of the Philippines
can fit in Legazpi City if they stand one meter apart and still have an excess of 50.7 square kilometers. Legazpi
City is just a tiny fraction of the Philippines.
Space for Shelter. - Suppose we provide apartments to all people of the world by building a 3-storey structure on every 100 square meters (10 meters by 10 meters). On every floor, let 5 persons live. Hence, for every 100 square meters, 15 persons are accommodated. We divide 7,021,836,029 by 15 to get 468,122,401.93 buildings or lots. Since every lot is 100 square meters, we would need 46,812,240,193 square meters or 46,812.25 square kilometers. The land area of Southern Tagalog is 46,924 square kilometers3. Hence, all the people of the world can be housed in Southern Tagalog and there will be an excess of 111.76 square kilometers.
For the population of the Philippines, we would need [(103,000,000 / 15) x 100] / 1,000,000 or 687 square kilometers. The Second Congressional District of Albay (Legazpi City, Daraga, Camalig, Manito, Rapu-Rapu) has 665.94 square kilometers; Sto. Domingo, 51.22. Their total is 717.16 square kilometers. Hence, all the people of the Philippines can be housed in the Second Congressional District of Albay and Sto. Domingo and still have an excess of 30 square kilometers.
The 103 square kilometers that would contain
all people in the Philippines standing one meter apart is smaller than the red oblong
drawn on the map above. The 687 sq
km needed to house them (10 m by 10 m, 3 floors, 5 persons per floor) is
approximately the size of the oblong.
Source
of map: http://www.istanbul-visit.com/carte/philippines-carte.asp
Food. - The following table shows the most recently available
data on world production of food requirements:
Maize (2009)4 –
817,110,509 metric tones
Wheat (2009)4 –
681,915,838
Rice (2009)4 –
678,668,289
Meat (2008)5 –
280,000,000
Fruits (2010)6 – 609,213,509
Fish (2009)7 – 145,100,000
Vegetables (2010)8 – 965,650,533
Total – 4,177,658,678 metric tonnes
That is more
than 4 trillion kilograms of food
available per year. In the following table we assume that a person eats ¼ kg of
food per meal. If we further assume that he eats 3 full meals and 2 snacks
every day with each snack equivalent to ½ meal, then we calculate that he needs
365 kgs of food every year.
0.25
|
kg of food per meal per person
|
4
|
meals per day per person
|
1
|
kgs of food per day per person
|
365
|
kgs of food per year per person
|
7,021,836,029
|
population of the world
|
2,562,970,150,585
|
kgs of food needed to feed all people per year
|
1,614,688,527,415
|
kgs excess food per year
|
Total yearly
food consumption is 2,562,970,150,585 kgs while 4,177,658,678,000 is the
supply. Hence, there is an excess of 1.6 trillion kgs.
For Philippine food production, we have the following data in 2010:9
Commodity
|
Production (MT)
|
Rice, paddy
|
15,771,700
|
Indigenous pig meat
|
1,612,350
|
Bananas
|
9,101,340
|
Fruit, tropical fresh
|
3,341,600
|
Indigenous chicken meat
|
743,682
|
Vegetables fresh
|
4,842,200
|
Pineapples
|
2,169,230
|
Indigenous cattle meat
|
186,869
|
Mangoes, mangosteens, guavas
|
825,676
|
Maize
|
6,376,800
|
Hen eggs, in shell
|
387,335
|
Indigenous buffalo meat
|
105,635
|
Other bird eggs, in shell
|
77,800
|
Cassava
|
2,101,270
|
Indigenous goat meat
|
55,183
|
String beans
|
118,454
|
Total
|
47,817,124
|
In kilograms,
that’s 47.8 billion. Using the same
assumptions as for world food consumption, we calculate Philippine food need at
37.595 billion kilograms (103
million x 365 kgs) per year. Hence, there is even an excess of 10.205 billion kilograms and no
Filipino should ever go hungry.
There should not be any famine anywhere in the world if only food is easily laid on every table. The queer phenomenon is that while food is abundant in one part of the world, there is hunger in another. We can only think of unnecessary impediments, mostly legalistic and bureaucratic. Worse, it could be due to greed. Sometimes, food aid is used as political leverage among nations.
Source: http://propelsteps.wordpress.com/2013/10/31/quest-what-can-balance-food-wastage-and-world-hunger/
Given all the assumptions cited, world food production in recent years can support 11,445,640,213 persons (4,177,658,678,000 kgs divided by 365 kgs per person). The fact is that world food output is going up while population growth rate is going down as shown in the following graphs:
The average of world population growth rates from 2000 to 2011 is 1.17%. At this rate, the world population figure of 11,445,640,213 will be attained in 42 years:
7 billion (1 + 0.0117)N =
11.4 billion
(1.0117)N =
11.4 / 7
= 1.63
ln(1.0117)N = ln 1.63
N = ln 1.63 / ln 1.0117
= 0.487703 / 0.011632
=
41.9 years
In other words, even if world food
output remains steady at recent levels while population grows at the average of
recent rates, there will be excess food for 42 years.
From the graph of world agricultural
production, it can be seen that in 1990 the amount produced was around 82;
2006, 114. (The units are not specified but this lack of information will not
matter as they will just cancel out in the formula
82(1+r)16 = 114
(1+r)16 = 114/82
= 1.390244
1 + r =
(1.390244) exp (1/16)
= 1.020806
r =
0.020806 or 2.08%
This is higher than 1.17%, the average
of world population growth rates from 2000 to 2011. Given that, there is no
possibility of food shortage due to “overpopulation.”
Philippine
food production has also been going up as the following graph shows:
Philippine population growth rate, on the other hand, has been going down.
From the formula
30(1+r)20 = 47.8
we calculate the Philippine food production
growth rate r:
(1 + r)20 = 47.8/30
= 1.593
1 + r
= (1.585014) exp (1/20)
=
1.023565
r =
0.023565 or 2.36%
This is higher
than 1.9225%, the average of the
growth rates of Philippine population from 2000 to 2011. If Philippine
population growth rate is going down, then why enact an RH Bill? It ain’t
broke. Why fix it? Could it be that abstinence and natural methods are already
at work? If we suppose that the decline is due to artificial methods, then why
should government still interfere? It is then an issue between the Church and
its flock. If the Church eventually convinces its flock to use only abstinence
and natural methods, then both institutions’ objectives are achieved. If the
government is still unhappy, then those running it must have ulterior motives
such as profits for corporations producing condoms, pills and other devices.
While it may
be conceded that the world population growth rate is on decline due to
artificial birth control methods, the same result can be achieved with the
natural. Couple that with values education and we will avoid a situation where
we seemingly solve what one sector perceives as a problem only to replace it
with real problems for other sectors – sexual promiscuity among the youth,
cancer due to birth control pills, irreversible population decline, loss of
replacement for the labor force, loss of security for the elderly. It needs no
mathematical proof to understand that once a nation has zero or negative
population growth for one generation, then its people will just get old and vanish
after one lifetime regardless of its current population. The lesson here is
that it is better to bear one problem than to solve it and face worse problems.
There are important
points we need to emphasize. One, a problem to some may not be to others. To
those with economic power, more people means more competitors for the world’s
resources. Thus, for them to maintain dominance the population of the world
must be controlled. Two, in solving a
problem there are constraints that should not be breached. Among such
constraints are moral principles. Solutions that do not compromise morality can
be found. Unfortunately, people in power prefer shortcuts, unmindful of the
dire consequences.
We cannot
dissociate the economic from the moral, sociological and political considerations
in addressing the RH issue. Nevertheless, if only to debunk the often repeated
argument (that we are “overpopulated” hence we need to control birth) then the
preceding calculations have to be presented.
Endnotes
The reader may be interested in the following articles:
Hong Kong's mounting food waste problem
By Dean Irvine, CNN
January
21, 2013 -- Updated 0505 GMT (1305 HKT)
India tackles supply chain to cut food waste
By Amy Kazmin, The Financial Times
By Amy Kazmin, The Financial Times
April 11, 2014 12:18 am
Filipinos Waste P14.4 Million Worth of Rice Alone a Day
Written by Estrella F. Palafox, NAMD-FNRI
Wasted: How America Is Losing Up to 40 Percent of Its Food
from Farm to Fork to Landfill
Author: Dana Gunders , Natural Resources Defense Council
Food wastage footprint
Food waste around
the world
As China's
leadership announces reducing food waste as a priority, we take a look at how
other countries are tackling the issue
• South Korea
• America
• Sweden
• South Korea
• America
• Sweden
Written August 3, 2012; uploaded April 25, 2014
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